I know this POV will upset some folks, but here goes: coal isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. It’s cheap, plentiful and easy to access, so we better start figuring out how to use it in a cleaner way. Of course there is no such thing as “clean coal” (as I’ve noted on my blog several times in the past). For that matter, there is no such thing as 100% clean solar or clean batteries (someone is out there right now extracting silicon, cadmium and lithium from the ground). But there is something as “cleaner” coal. Don’t get me wrong – I think it’s important that people like Al Gore, Bill McKibben and the folks at Power Shift are out there demanding that the dirtiest coal-fired power generation facilities be dealt with. I agree that we need voices to be demanding an accelerated roadmap to coal alternatives in a loud and unequivocal way (including the tongue-in-cheek voice of the Coen brothers). And apparently, according to this map, Coal Power Death Watch, these voices appear to be gaining traction in the US.
But guess what – there’s an elephant in the room called China. Around 70% of China’s primary energy consumption comes from coal today, and that number, even with the most aggressive forecasts for replacing it with renewables, is going to remain around 35-40% by 2050. And coal replacement has no doubt been prolonged by the current economy, which is keeping alternatives at a higher price point relative to fossil fuels. And don’t blame China. The US is just as much to blame on the coal front, if not more so (according to new analysis, one third of China’s GHGs come from export-oriented industries. Guess who’s to blame for that Wal-Mart shoppers?). Not to mention that China’s government is going gangbusters trying to replace fossil fuels. It’s in its interest to do so – from a public health, economic development, political stability and national security perspective.
But let’s face reality. Beijing is not going to create a domestic economic and political meltdown by shutting the country’s coal plants tomorrow. Nor will it risk that in 2020, or 2030. In fact, the government has already been aggressively shutting down dozens of smaller, dirtier coal-fired plants in recent years, but China’s need for more energy also means it continues to open new plants. So a couple of things are needed: 1. a clear and aggressive mechanism for cooperation between the US and China on reducing the impact of burning coal and an immediate removal of all tech transfer restrictions for dual-use technologies that have the ability to abate coal emissions and 2. a willingness on the part of the replace-coal community, myself included, to work with what we’ve got and make sure that we do everything possible to promote cleaner coal as we transition to more renewable forms or energy.
If you want to get arrested for protesting in front of coal plants that’s all fine and good, but once you’re released from custody, start working to help coal plants in China figure out a way to deal with their emissions in as clean a way as possible. They need all the help they can get and time is precious. Whether its sequestering flue gas in building materials, using underground coal gasification, IGCC or something else, it doesn’t matter to me. It just needs to happen.
By the way, I’m more than happy to be convinced otherwise, so if you want to state a different case, I’m all ears.
March 12th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Amen, brother!
March 15th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Willie, I left a comment when I saw your article on the green-tech media blogs site. I'll repeat it here, just in case you didn't see it. and check out the website: http://www.newgencoal.com.au
Firstly, I’ll state that I work for the Australian Coal Association, a body set up with a levy on the industry, to drive technology change, mainly carbon capture and storage. You don’t have to like -ineed you can hate – the coal industry to understand that what Willie says is right. Willie and I both worked in China for many years. Neither China, nor India, nor many parts of eastern europe, nor indonesia, nor parts of africa, nor south america will suddenly decide that their coal resources are too dirty to touch and instead they’ll endure years of energy shortages just so the western world can get its climate change fix. Australia is already working with China, as is Europe and now the new Obama Administration, to help speed up the introduction of Carbon Capture and Storage. If coal is a major part of the problem – and the industry in Australia (the world’s biggest coal exporter) accepts this, then it must be a major part of the solution. To those who just say CCS won’t work, your forbears said the same to the Wright Brothers. It’s a technology fix; it needs more work, more investment and more public support. There’s no doubt it WILL work – and at commercial scale within the next ten years. After that, it comes down to energy economics; if something else – solar, wind, geo-thermal, nuclear, even the mythical fusion – works better and is cheaper and can supply power needs, well that’s what will happen. Those who want all coal-fired power banned immediately, if not sooner, would condemn the citizens of developing countries to poverty and misery.